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Saves, in terms of fantasy, are important — but they are not the be-all and end-all when it comes to pitchers you should target on draft day.
There are fantasy managers who will pay up to have a dominant closer, such as Edwin Diaz, Emmanuel Clase or Josh Hader. Others will wait for the David Bednars and Scott Barlows of the world.
Then you have the players who prioritize position players or starting pitching and will wait … and wait … and wait to pounce on closers on lesser teams or target high-leverage relievers who could eventually become closers. That strategy may not rack up saves, but it does bring a lot of production — if you target the right guys.
Andres Muñoz is not (yet) the closer in Seattle. That job appears to belong to former Met Paul Sewald. Muñoz, however, is a different animal, who provides tons of value whether he is closing or not. Considering his average draft position (220.5), according to Fantasy Alarm, is ahead of that of Sewald (247.96) and several other closers, that should tell you all you need to know.
Among pitchers with a minimum of 60 innings pitched last season, Muñoz had the sixth-best strikeouts per nine (13.29) and the second-best swinging strike rate (21.6 percent). Opponents hit .188 against him, the 21st-lowest mark in the majors, and his WHIP (0.89) ranked 11th. His strikeout percentage (38.7 percent), xBA (.164), xSLG (.241) and xERA (1.84) were all in the top 1 percent of the majors.
Muñoz has a two-pitch repertoire — a blazing four-seamer and an elite slider. Opponents hit .338 with a 22.2 percent whiff rate against Muñoz’s fastball, which tops out around 103 mph. Those numbers may not look dominant, but he threw the pitch just 35.4 percent of the time.
His slider, a pitch Muñoz threw 64.6 percent of the time, is the real killer. He had a 50.8 percent whiff rate with the pitch, and opponents hit .128 with a .176 slugging percentage against it.
Muñoz is electric. He doesn’t need saves to be an asset. He picked up four saves last year (he also blew four chances) and a team-high 22 holds while maintaining a 2.49 ERA (though his 1.84 expected ERA and 2.04 FIP and xFIP indicate he got unlucky). He is going to be used in high-leverage situations, and he is going to get results for an improved Mariners squad. Being second in line for the closer gig is an added bonus. Make sure Munoz is on your side.
The Dodgers may start the season with Daniel Hudson as the closer, but Roto Rage suggests investing in Evan Phillips (298.44 ADP), who had a 33 percent strikeout rate with a .153 opponents average, an exit velocity that ranked in the top 7 percent of the majors, and an xBA (.175) and xSLG (.266) that ranked in the top 2 percent. He also had two saves, 19 holds, a 1.14 ERA and 0.76 WHIP. Brusdar Graterol (450.68) is another name to keep an eye on.
Despite having one of the worst walk rates in the majors (11.4 percent), Alex Lange (352.3) struck out 30.3 percent of the batters he faced, limited them to a .200 average and was among the top seven percent in the league with an 86.1 percent exit velocity. Though he is 1-for-8 in save chances over his first two seasons, he is in line to be the Tigers’ closer and comes at a reasonable price with plenty of upside.
Jason Adam (359.36) had a 1.56 ERA while striking out 10.7 per nine innings and earning eight saves in 12 tries for the Rays in 2022. He also limited opponents to a .145 average, the fourth-best mark among pitchers who tossed a minimum of 60 innings. Pete Fairbanks may be the presumptive closer, but he has pitched in more than 27 games in a season just once in his four-year career.
Let’s dig a little deeper:
It’s not the most exciting option (because of the team), but lefty Brandon Hughes (384.26) might be the guy to target from the Cubs. Though he did give up his fair share of homers (1.72 per nine innings), he also struck out 28.5 percent of the batters he faced (49.1 percent with his slider, a pitch he uses 45.7 percent of the time). Roto Rage also suggests keeping Adbert Alzolay (520.5) on your radar.
Despite striking out just 5.2 per nine innings over 30 second-half appearances, the Yankees’ Jonathan Loaisiga (493.87) was 1-1 with a 1.82 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, two saves and .191 opponent average. He is an intriguing relief option.
The Astros’ bullpen is loaded, and flamethrower Bryan Abreu (548.87) is coming off a season in which he was 4-0 with a 1.94 ERA, 13.13 strikeouts per nine (seventh-best in the majors among pitchers who threw a minimum of 60 innings) and a .206 opponents average. He could be a multi-innings monster worth a late-round flier.
Andrew Chafin (568.63) found his way back to Arizona, where he pitched from 2014-19, after maintaining 2.83 ERA and 27.6 percent strikeout rate over 64 appearances with Detroit in 2022. Over the past two seasons, he is 8-for-12 in save chances with a 2.29 ERA and 9.4 strikeouts per nine. He is worth keeping an eye.
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